Best Canadian Stocks

The Canadian Dividend Stock to Buy in September 2024

The Canadian Dividend Stock to buy in a Nutshell

Franco Nevada operates a royalty-based business model in stable countries such as the U.S., Canada, and Australia.
The company owns a wide portfolio of development projects to fuel future growth.
The closing of Cobre Panama mine since Nov 2023 is an opportunity for investors.

Selecting a gold stock for your top Canadian Dividend Stock to buy in September, Mike? Haha! I know, right? But this one qualifies to be an exception as it shows a great opportunity for dividend investors.

What’s the problem? Production at Cobre Panama has been halted since November 2023. Cobre Panama generated $223M in revenue for Franco-Nevada in 2022 and $248.9M in 2023, making it its most productive (in term of revenue) asset last year.

What is going to happen with the mine is still a mystery. However, FNV business model remains robust and the fact it has no debt will make it easier for management to navigate through trouble waters.

Let’s take a deeper look at it!

Franco Nevada Business Model

First Franco-Nevada is a streamer (meaning it gets royalties paid by mining companies instead of spending lots of capital in exploration and operations). Second, FNV has no debt. So it’s basically sitting on quality assets and reaping rewards like operating a cash printing machine. Here’s a summary of its portfolio:

Franco Nevada assets

Source: August 2024 presentation

Franco Nevada diversification

The company focuses 75% on precious metals (mostly gold with some silver) with a little bit of oil & gas and most of its assets are held in Americas.

Its revenue will fluctuate according to commodity prices, but the company has little expenses compared to a classic precious metal miner.

Investment Thesis

Franco-Nevada doesn’t waste its time operating mines, but rather manages a portfolio of royalty streams. The company owns 64,000 square kilometers of geologically prospective land but will let gold miners spend their own time and money on exploration. Once the miners find worthwhile materials, the royalty will intervene; we like this cash-flow-focused business model.

As FNV is a play on gold and precious metals, it enjoys stronger cash flows when gold prices surge. The company exhibits unparalleled portfolio diversification, offering shareholders some peace of mind in volatile markets. Finally, FNV has virtually no long-term debt. This is an interesting play if an investor is in it for the long game.

However, please note that the company is currently running with conflicts with the Government of Panama (around Cobre Panama). The upcoming Panamanian election on May 5th was highlighted as a critical event. Franco-Nevada expressed hope that the election could lead to a new dialogue with the incoming government, which might facilitate resolving the issues at Cobre Panama. However, it was noted that the new government would not officially take office until July.

This increases the level of risk (more in the potential risks section).

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Dividend Growth Perspective

Franco-Nevada has been a Canadian dividend stock since its IPO in 2008. Unfortunately, its very low dividend yield will not pay an investor’s utility bills. For that reason, many may decide to pass on it for their retirement portfolios. The company pays its dividend in USD. This is obviously a play on growth and not just income. The company has a strong dividend triangle, and an investor can expect further dividend increases in the coming years. In early 2023, FNV announced another dividend increase of 6% (from $0.32/share to $0.34/share). Again, in 2024, FNV increased its dividend by another $0.02 to $0.36/share (5.9% increase).

Franco Nevada assets dividend triangle

We can see the impact of Cobre Panama closing on its dividend triangle as both revenue and EPS have been affected.

Potential Risks

The company employs a strong business model and relies on royalties rather than being directly linked to commodity price fluctuations. Nonetheless, an investor can expect turbulence when the gold price drops; it’s highly cyclical. As a royalty-based company, FNV is subject to various tax and regulatory risks. Since it receives royalties from several countries, a change in regulation could lead to a change in distribution.

The company is running into legal issues with the Government of Panama. Panama’s Supreme Court declared First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mining contract to be unconstitutional on November 28th. Mining operations were essentially shut down late last week. First Quantum (the mine’s operator) along with FNV initiated arbitration proceedings under the Panama/Canada Free Trade Agreement.

Franco-Nevada expressed hope that the election could lead to a new dialogue with the incoming government, which might facilitate resolving the issues at Cobre Panama. It is clearly testing investors patience.

Final thought

Franco Nevada is a strong Canadian dividend stock, period. While the situation in Panama is a concern, I see it more as a buying opportunity for investors. The rest of the company is well, and Franco Nevada shows no debt. Worse, FNV won’t get royalties from this mine for a while, which will slow down the company’s short-term growth. However, five years from now, I doubt it will significantly impact Franco Nevada’s ability to generate cash flow.

Top 5 Canadian Dividend Stocks to Celebrate

I just published my top 5 Canadian Dividend Stocks for 2024 on the Moose on the Loose for Canada Day!

Since 10 minutes is not much to explore those 5 business models, I thought of giving you more details on each of them.

Waste Connections (WCN.TO)

5-Yr Revenue Growth	11.15 %
5-Yr EPS Growth	8.20 %
5-Yr Div Growth	13.50 %

Waste Connections has refined its expertise in acquiring and integrating smaller players in the same industry. Its business model is recession-proof as solid waste is a given regardless of the economic cycle. We also like the fact that WCN offers a recurring service and is fully integrated. Management has been adept in integrating their acquired companies. Therefore, the business is not only growing but also becoming more profitable. The company has the size to enjoy the resulting economies of scale. Its dividend payment is low, but its dividend growth is strong. Unfortunately, lower-yielding stocks are usually not a good match for the dividend discount model. Unfortunately, you must pay a steep price for quality, considering a PE of 57 and a forward PE of 63. Remember that WCN 5-year average PE is also in that range (65). Therefore, you will not get a good deal anytime soon for this amazing Canadian dividend grower.

TMX Group (X.TO)

5-Yr Revenue Growth	7.80 %
5-Yr EPS Growth	4.65 %
5-Yr Dividend Growth	9.60 %

TMX has worked very hard to diversify its business through derivatives, technology, and data analytics over the past few years. TMX enjoys strong barriers to entry with regulations to generate cash flow while investing its surplus in growth vectors. It disposed of many of its non-core businesses during 2016 and 2017 and, from a regional infrastructure provider, transformed itself into a global technology solutions provider. Recurring revenue now accounts for more than half of total revenues, growing from 40% five years ago. As an exchange, TMX gathers information on the market. Many institutions are prepared to pay good prices to subscribe to such a data feed. This will be a great way to generate recurring revenues going forward. We can see interesting trends from revenue and earnings, which strengthen the dividend triangle.

Intact Financial (IFC.TO)

5-Yr Rev. Growth	15.85 %
5-Yr EPS Growth	7.85 %
5-Yr Dividend Growth	9.45 %

IFC is one of the best managed P&C insurance companies in Canada. Through a strict underwriting process and careful portfolio management, IFC has proven its value to investors over time. Due to its size, IFC benefits from ample amounts of data to improve its underwriting. This also allows IFC to enter smaller niche insurance markets that are usually more profitable. Since the insurance market in Canada is quite fragmented, there are plenty of opportunities for growth in the coming years without any real threats to the IFC business model. The acquisition of OneBeacon opened the door to U.S. business and reinforces IFC’s ability to underwrite insurance for smaller businesses. Intact did it again with the acquisition of RSA insurance for $1.25B in late 2020. In 2023, IFC and RSA acquired Direct Line Insurance Group plc’s brokered commercial lines operations to expand its business in the UK.

Intact Financial expects to continue capturing growth opportunities, aiming for a 10% net operating income per share growth over time and to consistently outperform the industry ROE by at least 500 basis points annually. Intact Financial is focusing on expanding its digital capabilities to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. The company is also investing in data analytics and artificial intelligence to improve risk assessment and underwriting processes.

Have you noticed something?

If you look at those three Canadian dividend growers, you will notice they have three things in common:

They all offer a low yield and a high dividend growth policy.
They all show a strong dividend triangle. Those Canadian companies are thriving.
They all show great total return performance in the past 10 years.

The future looks bright for those companies as they operate sound businesses with robust financial metrics. We wish they were in our portfolio to enjoy the past ten years of growth. You may feel like you missed a great opportunities, but there are several companies showing a similar profile.

Do you want to find more companies like this?

My investment strategy has been built around low yield, high dividend growth companies showing strong dividend triangles. I wrote this guide to help you find those and build a stronger and safer portfolio for your retirement. You can download it here:

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)

5-Yr Revenue Growth	12.90 %
5-Yr EPS Growth	28.65 %
5-Yr Dividend Growth	22.50 %

In a world where the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would always trade at $75+ per barrel, CNQ would be a terrific investment. It is sitting on a large asset of non-exploited oilsands and reaches its breakeven point at a WTI of $35. What cools our enthusiasm is the strange direction oil has taken along with the fact that oilsands are not exactly environmentally friendly. Many countries are looking at producing greener energy and electric cars. This could slow CNQ’s ambitions. However, CNQ is very well positioned to surf any oil booms. The stock price has more than doubled in value since the fall of 2020. It has previously invested very heavily, and it is now generating higher free cash flow because of past capital spending. CNQ exhibited resilience in 2020, and this merits a star in their book! If you are looking for a long-term play in the oil & gas industry, CNQ appears at the top of our list at DSR. We also appreciate CNQ’s shareholder-friendly approach, as it will return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders after hitting $10B in net debt.

CCL Industries (CCL.B.TO)

5-Yr Revenue Growth	5.20 %
5-Yr EPS Growth	2.50 %
5-Yr Dividend Growth	15.30 %

It is quite rare to find an international leader with a well-diversified business based in Canada. Through the major acquisition of business units from Avery (world’s largest supplier of labels) in 2013, the company has set the tone for several years of growth. Bolstered by its previous successes, CCL also bought Checkpoint, a leading developer of RF and RFID, and Innovia in the past few years and announced more acquisitions in 2021. The company is still able to generate organic growth (roughly 4-5%) on top of its growth through acquisitions. You can also rest assured that management’s interests are aligned with yours since the Lang family still owns 95% of CCL’s A shares with voting rights. We appreciate CCL’s capital allocation that includes a mix of dividend, share buybacks, acquisitions and CAPEX. Now that the stock price has returned to normal levels, the company exhibits an attractive PE ratio and can still generate more growth through acquisitions

Low yield, high dividend growth stocks are safer

Focusing on companies with strong financial metrics will help build a more sustainable income for retirement. Once you identify the key elements that made that business thrive, you will be in a better position to determine if the story will continue.

Start seeing your portfolio as your “big” holding corporation like Warren Buffet. Create your own dividend and keep a cash reserve for the bad days. This is how you create a dividend income for life.

Thomson-Reuters (TRI.TO) – Anything but Boring

Thomson-Reuters (TRI.TO) seems pretty boring. After all, software and services for lawyers, accountants, and corporations don’t make us jump to our feet excitedly. However, with a market cap of $110B CAD, 31 consecutive years of dividend increases, and 5-year total returns of 200%, Thomson-Reuters is an industrial stock that is anything but boring.

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Formed in 2008 with the merger of Thomson and Reuters, TRI.TO is mostly known to the general public for its news service and media, but this only represents a few percentage points of its total revenue. Thomson-Reuters’s largest business is selling complex software and services for the legal profession (42% of its revenue), accounting profession (20-25%), and corporations (20-25%). The company was also in the financial data service, with Refinitiv, which it sold to the London Stock Exchange in 2019.

TRI’s Legal Professionals segment sells research and workflow products to law firms and governments. The Tax & Accounting Professionals segment does the same, but for tax, accounting and audit professionals in accounting firms. Its Corporates segment sells a full suite of content-driven technology solutions for small businesses all the way to multinational organizations, including the seven global accounting firms.

Create your own income. Learn how in our Dividend Income for Life Guide!

What’s to like about Thomson-Reuters?

TRI’s generates 80% of its revenue from subscription-based services; this predictable revenue and cash flow is great, as long as the customers stick around. This brings us another strength of Thomson-Reuters: its sticky business model. It sells products and services for complex and regulated domains such as law and accounting.

Through its WestLaw business unit, TRI offers an important service to lawyers. Law firms don’t have the time to jump from one provider to another. With WestLaw and Checkpoint, the tax & accounting software, Thomson-Reuters offers top-of-the-line software to two stable industries. Implementing and learning these services required a high degree if involvement from both TRI and the customers, which tends to cement the relationship between them.

This large customer base to offer cross-selling opportunities. Corporate clients have legal and accounting departments, law firms have accounting departments, etc.

The company generates steady organic growth throughout all segments. The pivot towards cloud-based software should allow it to lower acquisition costs while keeping its existing customer base. The complexity of its fields of business provides a strong barrier to entry against competitors. TRI is well-diversified geographically and enjoys a strong brand name.

Thomson-Reuters revenue, earning per share, and dividend payments evolution from 2014 to 2024 — TRI.TO revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and dividend payments for the last 10 years

The company is heavily investing in innovation, particularly in generative AI, to capitalize on the rising complexity of regulatory compliance and the demand for AI-driven solutions. It made notable progress with products like Westlaw Precision and CoCounsel, and the integration of Pagero to enhance corporate tax and audit capabilities.

Last quarter, Thomson Reuters reported solid results with revenue up 8.5% and EPS up 36%. Total organic revenue growth was 9%, with the “Big 3” segments growing by 10%, driven by strong transactional revenue and seasonal offerings. By segment, growth was as follows: Legal +7%, Corporate +12%, and Tax & Accounting +14%.

Potential Risks for TRI.TO

Selling its Financial and Risk (FR) segment brought in a good amount of cash, but reduced TRI’s business diversification. Following the transaction, TRI’s legal services now represent close to half of their revenues. While this segment is quite stable, it does not show rapid growth. A new technology emerging disrupting TRI’s financial legal services isn’t impossible either. TRI is an important shareholder of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) with a 15% stake. This participation is subject to market fluctuations and highly cyclical volumes.

While TRI counts on its Big 3 segments, the rest of its businesses (news and print) could adversely affect margins and slow overall growth. Finally, we saw TRI’S margin being affected by higher inflation in recent quarters. Multiyear contracts take time to reflect price increases.

TRI.TO Dividend Growth Perspective

Thomson Reuters has increased its dividend every year since 1993, but its dividend growth rate is not very impressive.

Selling Refinitiv in 2019 brought in a healthy infusion of cash into the business. Management bought back shares and authorized another 5M in share buybacks. An investor can expect a low single-digit dividend growth rate from now on, perhaps with nice surprises along the way as we were in 2022 with the 10% dividend increase, followed by another one in 2023. TRI did not disappoint in 2024 with another 10% increase.

Thomson-Reuters pays its dividend in USD.

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Final Thoughts on Thomson-Reuters

At 1.25% dividend yield, Thomson-Reuters is a low yield stock. It is also high growth. Total returns over 5 years were 200%! TRI has a stable business model that generates consistent cash flow. With its yearly dividend increased, TRI management is showing its confidence for the future.

Management increased the dividend by 10% in early 2024 and expects to buy back for $1B worth of share. Full-year 2024 outlook expects organic revenue growth of approximately 6%.

TRI.TO stock is trading at a high valuation. It’s trading at a lower P/E ratio than its five-year average, but a P/E ratio of 33 and a Fwd P/E ratio of 44 might give you reason to pause. With market expectations high, will Thomson-Reuter be able to innovate to keep high-single digit revenue growth going? It’s certainly worth a look.

Foundational Stocks: TFI International (TFII.TO)

A foundational stock, or core holding, is one you can buy and forget about for 10 years without worry. TFI International (TFII.TO) is such a stock. A sleep-well-at-night investment you know will be around 10 years from now and give you growth. Find out more about TFII.

Build on foundational stocks to create income for life! Learn more in our Dividend Income for Life Guide!

TFI International Business Model

TFI International is one of the largest trucking companies in North America. Its segments include Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload, Less-Than-Truckload, and Logistics.

Package and Courier picks up, transports, and delivers items across North America. Less-Than-Truckload picks up small loads, consolidates, transports, and delivers them. The Truckload segment offers conventional and specialized truckload services, including flatbed trucks, tanks, dumps, and oversized. It offers specialized trailers and a million-plus square feet of industrial warehousing space. Logistics provides asset-light logistical services, including brokerage, freight forwarding, transportation management, and small package parcel delivery. TFII hauls compostable and recyclable materials and offers residential waste management services.

With its size and vast network, it enjoys economies of scale, giving it an edge over the competition. While it competes with lower-cost rail transportation, the flexibility of truck transport means there will always be demand.

Another benefit of TFII’s size is that it can buy smaller competitors to fuel its growth. It has completed over 80 acquisitions since 2008.

TFII.TO Investment Thesis

Since TFI International is expanding, it might be time to invest and ride with them for a while. It made a wise move to expand outside Canada since the U.S. and Mexican economies have great potential.

With a larger fleet, TFI will be ready to pick up any available steady growth. Investing in a leader in Canada and North America is a safe bet for any investor looking to build a dividend growth portfolio. The company displays an appetite for further growth by acquisition that bodes well for the years to come. TFI completed the major acquisition of UPS Freight in April 2021 and it’s already a transformational success. The company is expanding its margins as it benefits from additional economies of scale and the network effect.

Below is TFII’s stock price evolution over 10 years, as well as its revenue, EPS, and dividend growth. Note that what looks like a dividend cut in the dividend triangle graph in April 2021 was really a conversion to USD when TFII started paying its dividend in US currency.

TFII could see some headwinds for a bit as many economists expect a recession. However, this also means TFII should remain in a solid position to make more acquisitions as smaller competitors may struggle in this economy.

Potential Risks for TFII

While road transportation beats railroads in flexibility, railroads win on cost. The transportation industry is highly cyclical; stock values could suffer in downturns. Oil prices affect the trucking industry; there is a limit in fuel surcharges companies can add to their bill.

Big fish eating little fish. — TFII will need to gobble up more smaller companies

TFII will have to identify other potential mergers and acquisitions transactions to ensure continued earnings growth. The organic trucking business stay cyclical in the future. The next time we hit a recession, the stock price could drop rapidly. Remember that TFII is a volatile stock. On one earnings day, the stock price fell 8% on weaker-than-expected results. Finally, if there is a tariff war in North America, TFII will be stuck in the middle.

TFII Dividend Growth Perspective

TFII has had consecutive dividend increases since 2016. While it has a 5-year dividend growth rate over 13% (CAGR), the payout ratios remain low. This leaves much room for increases in its dividend payout. We would have liked to see a smoother trend for earnings, but the dividend payouts aren’t at risk for now. In 2023, TFII rewarded shareholders with a dividend increase of 14%, and another one of 12.5% in 2024!

Get more information about creating sustainable dividend income in our Dividend Income for Life Guide.

In Closing

TFI International (TFII.TO) is a great foundational stock for any portfolio. You can be confident that, though volatile, a position in this stock will grow over time. Of course, when we say you can “forget” about a foundational stock for 10 years, we’re exaggerating. It’s still best practice to monitor all your holdings quarterly, including TFII. With foundational stocks, however, I don’t spend much time or dig too deep into the quarterly results unless I see signs of trouble, which I rarely do.

High-Risk High-Reward Stock for June 2024: Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN.TO)

On my buy list since April 2023, Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN.TO) has moved to the top on that list for Canadian stock paying a yield of 4% or more. Allied Properties is still not getting a lot of love from the market due to the negative sentiment around the real estate sector, and even worse for office properties. We continue to believe that AP is a very interesting play. Its stock price decline makes it a good entry point for investors interested in a speculative real estate stock. This is a falling knife—high risk, high reward—so proceed with caution.

Create and manage your own dividend income portfolio. Learn how in our Dividend Income for Life Guide.

Allied Properties Business Model

Allied Properties is a Canada-based open-end real estate investment trust (REIT). It owns and operates unique urban workspaces in Canada’s cities and network-dense urban data centers in Toronto.

It provides knowledge-based organizations with distinctive urban environments for creativity and connectivity. Allied Properties operates in seven urban markets in Canada: Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Kitchener, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver.

Allied engages in third-party property management business, providing services for properties, in which a trustee of Allied Properties has an ownership interest.

AP.UN.TO Investment Thesis

Allied features one of the strongest balance sheets among Canadian REITs. It has much of its capital invested in low-cost projects and is currently paying down higher-interest debt while simultaneously investing in new projects.

AP.UN.TO maintains its unique expertise in managing and developing prime heritage locations, which will continue to be in high demand in the coming years. The REIT also counts on many technology clients, which represent a growing sector in Canada.

There are still concerns surrounding office REITs, but Allied Properties has proven its resilience in difficult times. The 2023 distribution increase (+2.7% in early 2023) and low payout ratio for a REIT were good signs.

AP remains a high-risk, high-reward play; investors must do their due diligence and monitor the occupancy rate and FFO per unit growth.

AP.UN.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

Allied Properties did well in its most recent quarter, all things considered, with revenue up 4%, and Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) per unit up 1%. The AFFO payout ratio for the quarter stands at 83.8%. Same Asset NOI (net operating income) from Allied Properties’ rental portfolio was down 2% while Same Asset NOI from its total portfolio was up 2.9%, reflecting the productivity of its upgrade and development portfolio.

AP.UN.TO’s occupied and leased area at the end of the quarter was 85.9% and 87%, respectively. This was lower than the previous quarter. We wish we would see this number go above 90%. Allied Properties remains a speculative play. Below is Allied Properties’ dividend triangle showing the falling stock price but revenue going back up. As always with REITs, look to FFO or AFFO per unit rather than EPS.

Potential Risks for AP.UN.TO

Most of Allied Properties’ income is derived from office properties. We know how the pandemic left a dent in the real estate market, especially for office space. Some workers were eager to return to the office, while others weren’t willing to. Many enjoy working from home and the way we work may be forever changed. There will be demand for quality office buildings, but how we will use offices in the coming years remains uncertain, and parking revenues might be weaker going forward.

AP.UN.TO’s properties are mostly located in Ontario (Toronto) and Quebec (Montreal). This limited geographic diversification can leave it vulnerable to economic changes in these provinces. We saw in their latest quarterly update that both regions had been affected. Fortunately, smaller markets such as Calgary and Vancouver showed strong occupancy rates. The global occupancy rate is at 87% for Q1 2024. We advise to not to enter a position unless you are willing to take the risk.

Create your own money-making machine. Learn how in our Dividend Income for Life Guide.

Allied Properties Dividend Growth Perspective

When evaluating a REIT, we look for dividend increases that at least match inflation. This is the case with AP.UN.TO. The company has a 2.5% dividend CAGR over the past 5 years and healthy FFO and AFFO growth. An investor can therefore expect 2-3% annual dividend growth going forward.

For the full year 2022, AP.UN.TO’s AFFO payout ratio was 81%. It increased its distribution by 2.7% in 2023 (after a 3% increase in 2022), for an annual distribution payment of $1.80/share. After paying its special distribution in December 2023, AP.UN.TO hasn’t increased its distribution increase yet in 2024 but still shows a healthy AFFO payout ratio of 80%. If AP.UN.TO’s distribution doesn’t increase by the end of 2024, it will lose its dividend safety score of 3 at Dividend Stocks Rock . Allied Properties pays a monthly distribution.

Final Thoughts on Allied Properties REIT

With still much uncertainty around office space use in the future and Applies Properties’ occupancy rate on a downtrend (87% in Q1 2024 vs. 87.3% in Q4 2023 vs 89.5% in 2022), this is a speculative play.

However, AP.UN.TO still has decent payout FFO and AFFO payout ratios (77.8% and 83.8% respectively), making its guidance sustainable. It boasts unique heritage properties in urban areas and clients in the growing technology sector. It also has a strategic objective to establish its urban rental-residential portfolio.

With its stock price at under $17, compared to $21 a year ago and $32 two years ago, and distribution increases matching inflation (though not yet in 2024), this falling knife could be an interesting real estate play. Again, potential high reward, but high risk!

CNR and CNQ – Beat the Competition on Cost

CNR and CNQ are two companies that hold cost advantages over their competition. Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) is a transportation and logistics company while Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) is in oil & gas exploration and production.

They have a cost advantage because they can produce goods or services at a cheaper price than their competitors. A cost advantage can be used in two ways:

1) Crush the competition with low price

Often, the easiest way to gain market share is to sell at a cheaper price than their competitors. When they produce the same goods or services at a lower cost, they can undercut competition. This is what Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) does.

2) Sell at the same price, but make a lot more profit

When the business model permits, some companies will sell at the same price as their competitors. Their advantage is in the higher margin they enjoy thanks to their lower operations cost. They then become money-making machines. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) often does this.

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Canadian National Railway – Offering lower prices

Railroads are known to be one of, if not the cheapest way to transport goods across land. With Canada and the U.S. amongst the largest countries in the world, CNR (and Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP.TO for that matter) are quite popular. Railroads are less flexible than truck transport, but they are surely the lowest-cost transport.

But CNR is more than railway transport! Its services also include intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. CNR’s rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage, and more. Intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with ~23 strategically placed intermodal terminals. These services include temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics parks, moving grain in containers, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others. Trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services.

CNR.TO dividend triangle as of May 2024 — CNR.TO dividend triangle: trend of stock price, revenue, earnings per share, and dividends over 10 years

Known as “best-in-class” for operating ratios for years, CNR boasts strong operational performance, with velocity and speed staying solid metrics quarter after quarter. CNR has tirelessly improved its margins and was among the first railroad companies to do so. Today, its peers have caught up and are managed in the same way.

CNR profits from cost advantages over trucking and other transportation methods, and from the scale of its operations which is virtually impossible to replicate. These advantages give it what is called a wide economic moat, meaning that it will enjoy these benefits for 20 years or more. Therefore, it can count on increasing cash flows each year.

The good thing about CNR is that investors can always wait for a down cycle in the economy to invest in it. You can bank on it going back on a roll when things pick up and consumers and businesses buy more goods.

Canadian Natural Resources – Raking in the profits

A play in the energy sector is Canadian Natural Resources, an oil and gas exploration and production company. CNQ enjoys long-life assets with low declines in its reserves. The company can produce oil and natural gas at an extremely low cost. This enables CNQ to ramp up production when prices are up and boost their margins. During down cycles, it can slow down production and still be highly profitable. In other words, its cost advantage makes CNQ a cash flow-making machine.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) dividend triangle: revenu, EPS, and dividend growth over 10 years — CNQ.TO dividend triangle: trend of stock price, revenue, earnings per share, and dividends over 10 years

CNQ sits on a large asset of non-exploited oilsands and its break-even price for the WTI grade of crude is $35. However, the fact that oilsands are not exactly environmentally friendly and that more and more countries look to produce greener energy and electric cars does cool our enthusiasm a bit.

Despite this, CNQ is very well positioned to surf any oil boom. It invested heavily, and it is now generating higher free cash flow because of that capital spending. CNQ appears at the top of my list for a long-term play in the oil & gas industry. I also appreciate CNQ’s shareholder-friendly approach, as it will return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders after hitting $10B in net debt.

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Cost-advantaged companies in other industries

There are companies in other industries that also enjoy cost advantages over the competition. Think of Costco which positions itself as the largest customer of its suppliers to gain negotiating power and offer the lowest prices to its customers.

Walmart is another great example of a cost-advantaged business. As a dominant retailer and among the largest grocers in the U.S., WMT built its entire business model around offering “low prices every day”. Walmart “squeezes” every penny from its suppliers to 1) offer the cheapest price possible to customers and 2) crush most competitors. You don’t go to Walmart for its exceptional customer service, but rather to pay as low a price as possible for everyday goods.

The cost advantage can be deadly. Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos, once said “Your margin is my opportunity”. Companies, such as Barnes & Noble, thought they were doing well, and that no competition could kill them. Along came Amazon with a different business model focused on building a strong cost advantage. Barnes & Noble survived, barely, but it’s not a flourishing business anymore.