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Canoe Income Fund (EIT.UN.TO) Review – 2024

Canoe EIT Income Fund is a Canadian closed-end investment trust. The investment objective of the Fund is to maximize monthly distributions relative to risk and maximize net asset value while maintaining and expanding a diversified portfolio. In other words, EIT has been created to take your money, manage it, and distribute juicy monthly dividends to help you manage your retirement budget.

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What Canoe Income Fund looks like

The Canadian fund includes 47.3% (7% less than last year) of Canadian equity stocks, 50.4% (+7%) of U.S. stocks, 5.58% (you read that right, the website shows 103% of the money invested…that’s probably linked to leverage.) of international equity, and 0% (in line with last year) cash. Despite having less than 50% of its assets invested in Canadian firms, its sector breakdown is heavily concentrated in financials, energy, and materials (55.98%).

Source: EIT website

Top-25 Holdings

They have an impressive diversification of stocks from low yield to high yield with various safe stocks and other quite speculative securities. The fund has greatly diminished its exposure to the energy sector, as they have made the smart move of cashing in on many of their gains in that sector.

Another interesting point is the amount of turnover in the fund when we compare their top holdings from August 2023. I have highlighted (in green) 9 positions out of 25 (36%) that are not in the top 25 this year. Last year, it was 12 positions for a 48% turnover rate.

But my opinion does not really matter if the fund helps you retire happily. Let’s look at what does really matter though and that is how the fund’s money has been managed over time and how much you profit (or not) from the management team led by Rob Taylor, CPA, CA, CFA (yes, he needs 2 business cards to include all his titles!).

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Performance & Distributions

From their website, we can see that EIT has outperformed the TSX on a consistent basis (which was not the case prior to 2020). Their focus on the energy and basic materials sectors clearly paid off after the pandemic and now the fund has moved to other sectors.

However, I don’t particularly appreciate that they only use the TSX as their benchmark and ignore the S&P 500. With 50% of their portfolio invested in the U.S., it seems only fair to include U.S. and international components to their benchmark measures.

Just for fun, I ran the calculations using a portfolio with 47% XIU.TO, 50% SPY and 3% XEF.TO (for international equity) for the past 10 years, 5 and 3 years. Results include dividends and are as of 7/31/2024 to match their website.

CAGR: 10yr: 10.44%, 5yr: 12.72%, 3yr: 8.6%.

This is quite interesting, as our conclusions in 2021 and 2020 were not the same. The first two times we analyzed the fund, it had underperformed the index portfolios we created. This time, it is quite the opposite. You can see that change occurred around mid-2021 where Canoe started to surge while indexes reached a plateau and eventually decreased in 2022.

The idea of having a high-yield investment (EIT.UN.TO pays 8.5% yield at the time of writing) where distributions are paid monthly is quite interesting. If you reinvest the distribution, you could beat the market, which is quite impressive! Strangely enough, EIT.UN.TO returns are now quite similar to my personal portfolio.

The lesson here is that conclusions and returns can vary from one year to another. We will review Canoe again next year. The Canoe fund could be an interesting way to generate a high income from your investments. However, if you cash this distribution, make sure you realize two things:

#1 Your capital will not likely grow over time

#2 Your dividend will not likely grow over time

Therefore, it’s an interesting investment vehicle for income, but that income is not inflation-proof. In fact, you receive a lot less today than 10 years ago. If you reinvest the dividend in the fund, then, you get a good total return. However, you don’t get to cash the dividend to fund your retirement.

Do you see how we run into circles?

Canoe and the habit of issuing more shares

Another interesting point is that Canoe has continuously issued more units year after year since 2018. This is great for raising money to invest and capture opportunities. However, it’s not that great when you consider that it increases the amount to be paid in dividends each year.

With this kind of structure, it looks like Canoe will do well as long as we are in a bull market. If units start to tumble, Canoe will have difficulty issuing more shares to invest and pay the current dividend. This could put serious pressure on Canoe’s ability to maintain its generous distribution.

Final Thoughts

Canoe EIT income fund is not the worst investment in the world. In fact, it generated decent returns considering its dividend. While recent performance has been impressive, the fund is not perfect. First, ownership of this fund does not avoid value fluctuations when the market is shaky. If you looked at your portfolio value during corrections Canoe did not save you from headaches.

The only thing that is “guaranteed” is the dividend payment… until it isn’t. Does any Canadian remember Financial Split Corp (FTN.TO) or Dividend 15 Split Corp (DF.TO)? They were both famous for their high yields and super solid investment strategy. I will leave it to you to research them today if you are curious. Did I ever tell you there is no free lunch in the world of finance and investments?

Canoe looks good today, but it was not the same story three years ago. Can it show more consistency going forward? Only time will tell.

Buy List Stock for April 2024: Hammond Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO)

New to my buy list for April 2024 is Hammond Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO). This pick is a speculative play. While Hammond Power is a small-cap company it might be the underdog investors didn’t see coming. It’s an interesting play with a good dividend if one is not afraid of market fluctuations. Hammond is still experiencing significant growth.

See also our U.S. buy list stock pick for this month.

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Hammond Power Solutions Business Model

Hammond Power Solutions Inc. is a manufacturer of dry-type transformers in North America. It engineers and manufactures a range of standard and custom transformers that are exported in electrical equipment and systems. It enables electrification through its range of dry-type transformers, power quality products, and related magnetics. Its standard and custom-designed products are essential and ubiquitous in electrical distribution networks through a range of end-user applications.

The company’s products include power transformers, furnace transformers, converter transformers, unitized substations, control & automation products, low voltage distribution products, medium voltage distribution products, and others. It supports industries, such as oil and gas, mining, steel, waste and water treatment, commercial construction, data centers, and wind power generation. It has manufacturing plants in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and India and sells its products around the globe.

HPS.A.TO Investment Thesis

Hammond Power is a small-cap company with a market cap of approximately $950M that competes against many giants in the industrial field. The company enjoys a solid reputation for the quality and reliability of its. HPS tried to expand its success internationally but had to close its Italian division and continues to struggle in India. However, after closing its Italian business, the company focused on what’s working for it in North America.

The company is now well-positioned in Mexico and exhibits growth potential in both Mexico and the U.S., which now represent more than 50% of its total revenue. Hammond continues to witness significant growth in its custom business in the energy, mining, silica chip manufacturing, and data center markets.

HPS.A.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

Hammond Power Solutions 2023 results showed robust growth across all geographies and channels. Its most recent quarterly results were strong, again, with revenue up 30% and EPS up 10%. The quarter ended with record shipments of $187M globally. This was a new record top line, which helped the company reach its margin and profit targets.

U.S. and Mexico sales were helped by a stronger U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar compared to 2022. HPS saw substantial sales growth in the OEM channel in the U.S. in support of data centers, warehousing, industrial manufacturing, mining, electric vehicle charging, renewable energy, and oil and gas production. The company will continue to invest in increasing its capacity for 2025. This is looking good!

Graphs showing Hammond Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO)'s stock price, revenue, EPS, and dividend over 10 years — Monster growth for Hammond Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO)

Potential Risks for Hammond Power Solutions

The pandemic had an impact on HPS as revenues decreased due to the deferment of electrical projects, business interruptions, and overall lower levels of economic activity. However, HPS proved its resilient business model, with orders rebounding and HPS skyrocketing.

We advise you to tread carefully with small caps that are growing too quickly. HPS’ expansion success in North America couldn’t be replicated in India or Italy. After closing its business in Italy, future expansion projects may not spark investors’ enthusiasm. Also, a part of the company’s revenue is tied to the oil & gas and mining industries, both of which are highly cyclical. HPS is also subject to currency fluctuations due to its exposure to the U.S. and Mexican markets. With such a small capitalization, an investment in this company can fluctuate frequently.

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HPS.A.TO Dividend Growth Perspective

HPS finally resumed its dividend growth policy in 2022 with a generous increase. The dividend went from $0.085/share to $0.10/share (+17.6% increase!) and then to $0.125 (+25%!) in early 2023. However, remember that the company chose to cut its distribution following the financial crisis of 2009, with more cuts in 2011-2012. The dividend remained stable for several years before the recent increases.

Unfortunately, the dividend growth policy will follow industrial economic cycles. In the meantime, you can enjoy the ride! Speaking of which, management increased HPS’s dividend by another 20% in September 2023.

Final Thoughts on Hammond Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO)

Hammond Power Solutions has shown amazing growth for the last two years. With a recession possibly around the corner, its customers in cyclical industries might not do very well themselves. Is HPS resilient enough to keep that growth going or will headwinds slow it down? Only time will tell.

Obviously, you don’t bet the house on this, but it could be a very lucrative investment, as long as you can live with significant volatility.

DDM Stock Valuation to Compare Stocks

One of the most debated topics among investors is how to assess the value of a stock. I like to use stock valuation models like the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) to compare similar stocks I have already thoroughly analyzed and find interesting, to see which one might be the best deal.

I don’t use valuation to determine if the company is undervalued or not because, to be honest, your guess is as good as mine. If you put ten financial analysts in a room and ask them to determine the valuation of a company, you’ll likely end up with ten materially different answers.

They’re all smart folks, but each of them has a different perspective. However, using a valuation tool with the same perspective and applying it to two or more companies in the same sector makes it easier to identify which one is the best deal and the best fit with my investment thesis.

To clarify this process, let’s compare two Canadian banks: Royal Bank (RY.TO) and National Bank (NA.TO).

Analyzing RY.TO and NA.TO

Before looking at the fair value of Royal Bank and National Bank as per the DDM, any investor interested in them should analyze both; study their business model, look at their dividend triangle, evaluate the safety and growth potential of their dividend, identify their growth vectors and their risks. For details about what I do to analyze stocks, read this article.

Our diligent investor might summarize the analysis like this:

Business model:

Both RY and NA are regulated and diversified Canadian banks
RY is much larger than NA ($181B market cap vs. $35B)
RY is more distributed geographically than NA, which is heavily concentrated in Quebec

Dividend triangle, dividend safety and growth:

Both banks have a strong dividend triangle showing growth in revenue, EPS, and dividend
NA shows slightly faster dividend growth since early 2022 and higher growth numbers over 5 years for all three metrics
Dividend payout ratios are under control for both, with RY near 45% and NA near 37%

Growth vectors:

RY has diversified revenue streams and is increasing its activities outside Canada
RY targets growth in wealth management, capital markets, and insurance, with this trio already representing over 50% of its revenue
NA follows a growth by acquisition strategy, targets wealth management and capital markets
NA is more flexible and quicker to move due to its smaller size

Risks:

RY capital markets and insurance growth vectors are inclined to variable returns
RY has high exposure to Canadian housing market and the effects of rising mortgage rates
NA is dependent on the Quebec economy, although it has been expanding with private banking in western Canada and investments in emerging markets, such as the ABA bank in Cambodia
NA takes more risks to find growth vectors

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With all this analysis information on hand, our investor still hesitates between Royal Bank and National Bank and now turns to the DDM valuation to compare them.

Comparing NA.TO and RY.TO Valuation

Here is the DDM valuation data for both Royal Bank and National Bank taken from their respective stock cards on the DSR website.

At the time of writing, National Bank was trading at about $103 per share and Royal Bank at around $131.00 per share.

Looking at this data to compare both banks, including the value circled in red for each bank, observe the following:

	RY	NA
DDM Intrinsic value	$190.80	$99.77
Current stock price	$131	$103
Stock currently trading at	45% discount	3% over its value

At 45% discount, RY looks like an amazing deal, a slam dunk, right? It certainly does, but…there is a crucial difference to understand here, which is the discount rate. The discount rate, also known as the “expected return”, represents the minimum acceptable rate of return that an investor expects to earn on their investment to compensate for the risk and opportunity cost of investing in that particular stock.

Compare Apples to Apples

Notice below that the discount rates used for the intrinsic value of RY and NA are not the same. Due to RY’s geographic distribution and revenue stream diversification mentioned earlier, we used a discount rate of 9%, whereas NA’s more audacious approach made us use a 10% rate.

If we compare both banks with the same discount rate of 10%, we see that the difference between the two is significantly reduced.

	RY	NA
DDM Intrinsic value	$143.10	$99.77
Current stock price	$131	$103
Stock currently trading at	9% discount	3% over its value

If you hesitate between RY and NA, a look at the DDM value confirms that your dilemma is between two really good stocks. RY might seem a better deal at current prices, but NA could be a better pick if you want more growth potential and are prepared to live with more volatility in the stock price.

I have both Royal Bank and National Bank in my portfolio because both fit my investment thesis. I appreciate National Bank’s significant growth potential and Royal Bank’s more stable and steady approach. As a reliable source of income that also shows growth vectors, RY.TO is also included in the DSR Canadian retirement portfolio model.