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Best Canadian Stocks

Buy List Stock – December 2023: Brookfield Corporation (BN.TO)

Still number one buy list stock on the Canadian market for December is Brookfield Corporation (BN.TO / BN). The engine behind the Brookfield family of businesses, BN is a core holding, one that investors can hold for a long time. Have a look.

You can have a look at my buy list stock pick of the month on the U.S. market.

BN.TO Business Model

Brookfield Corporation is an alternative asset manager, meaning that its assets are not liquid like conventional assets such as stocks, bonds, cash, ETFs. It owns and operates these real assets with a focus on compounding capital over the long term to earn attractive total returns for its shareholders. Managing alternative assets requires a high level of expertise and patience.

Brookfield logo surrounded by 7 boxes naming the company's business categoriesBN is the parent company of the other Brookfield companies; through them BN focuses on long-life, high-quality assets  including: Renewable Power & Transition assets in hydro, wind, solar, distributed energy and sustainable solutions; Infrastructure assets in transport, data, utilities and midstream sector; Asset Management, managing funds coming from pension plans and other investors; Private Equity, businesses that provide essential industrial, infrastructure, and business services; Real Estate with a diversified portfolio across many industries and spread across five continents; Credit, through its majority interest in Oaktree; and Insurance Solutions across the life, annuity, and property and casualty industries.

Investment Thesis for Brookfield Corporation 

The company has access to billions of dollars in liquidity to finance its projects and has built impressive expertise in various industries. BN is present in countries that show potential for high growth for years to come. Its diversified businesses are a solid source of permanent capital. Over the last few years, BN has seen an increase in both the number and size of average client commitments. BN is well-positioned to expand its private fund investor base in Europe and parts of Asia.

Brookfield Corporation doesn’t only do the asset-light manager’s job consisting of strategy and earning fees on assets under management (AUM); it also contributes with its own assets. Therefore, it benefits from its own strategies to recycle its assets; in other words, it can sell assets it considers to be at a high value and reallocate the proceeds into new projects or undervalued assets. It’s the classic “buy low, sell high” concept.

For more great stock ideas, download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly.

BN.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

Brookfield Corporation reported decent results for its most recent quarter with revenue increasing 5%, but distributable earnings per share remained flat. Insurance solutions distributable earnings were up 14% as insurance assets increased to ~$50B. The average investment portfolio yield was 5.5%, about 200 basis points higher than the average cost of capital. It continues to track towards reaching $800M of annualized earnings by the end of 2023.

Evolution of Brookfield Corporation revenues over 10 years.
Steady revenue growth for Brookfield Corporation over 10 years.

Operating businesses earnings declined by 8% but funds from operations were supported by a stronger performance from the renewables and infrastructure segments. The asset management segment was up 13% and BN ended the quarter with $120B to invest.

The bigger news about Brookfield of late was its offer to BN shareholders to exchange their shares for shares of Brookfield Reinsurance (BNRE), one for one. There was no share dilution, and the company did it to improve equity base and market capitalization of BNRE.

Potential Risks for BN.TO

BN’s growth depends on investors’ confidence in long-term projects. When panic arises, it becomes difficult for companies like BN to increase their AUM. We had another example of this phenomenon in 2022, when the stock price dropped along with the market.

BN is well-managed and has the ability to navigate the current crisis. Investors must simply remain patient. Its operational complexity can leave many investors wondering how money is managed within the business; it’s easy to get lost in the pile of financial statements throughout the multiple companies and the many stock classes.

Contrary to BAM, which is asset-light, BN’s success relies on management’s ability to manage its assets; in short, making money selling at the right time, and reallocating capital into the right assets at the right time. This adds to the complexity of its business model and requires a larger cash reserve.

Want to find more great stock ideas? Download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly.

BN.TO Dividend Growth Perspective

Following the spin-off of BAM, it’s clear that BN is a low-yield, high-growth stock. The company kept a low yield by paying a $0.07/share dividend. We expect this dividend to increase each year. However, if you’re looking for a more generous yield, BAM is the better option.

Line graph showing BN.TO's dividend payments over 10 years
BN.TO: a low yield high growth stock after Following the spin off of BAM

BN has the advantage of owning a stake in various assets across the Brookfield family, while BAM has the advantage of simply managing the money and earning revenue on a fee charged on the assets under management.

Final Thoughts on Brookfield Corporation

It’s virtually impossible to buy a piece of a bridge or a railroad. This is where Brookfield comes into play as investing in Brookfield Corp is like investing in your own “alternative asset fund”.

As an asset manager, you can expect BN.TO to go through some difficult times with the higher interest rates and possible recession. However, its depth of assets, expertise, and geographic distribution make it a worthwhile buy list stock for investors seeking long-term dividend growth.

Investing in alternative assets is a great way to diversify a portfolio. Usually, the investment returns on such investments are decided by what’s happening on the stock market. You can expect them to generate about 5-7% above inflation over long periods of time. Interest in alternative assets is increasing, especially for institutional investors.

See also the list of Canadian Dividend Aristocrats for other great stock pick ideas.

 

 

 

25 Most Popular Canadian Stocks at DSR

Looking at the 25 most popular Canadian stocks among members of DSR Pro is not only fun, but it can reveal opportunities we might have overlooked. Last week, we covered the top 5. If you missed it, read it here. This article provides the investment thesis for the stocks that are the 6th to 10th most popular, and list those in the 11th to 25th positions along with their respective sectors.

I pulled the most popular stocks from the DSR database based of the number of times they appear across the 2,289 DSR PRO members’ portfolios, not by looking at individual portfolios. This is strictly based on how frequently each stock appears in the database, not on the value invested (which I don’t know).

See also the U.S. stocks most popular with DSR Pro members.

Discover even more great dividend growth stocks. Download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly!

Royal Bank (RY.TO / RY)

6th place – 1165 members

Royal Bank plays a similar role as TD in a portfolio. I prefer RY for its greater diversification. I like its business distribution across classic banking operations (40.4%), wealth management (29.8%), capital markets (18.3%), insurance (7%) and investor & treasury services (4.4%) as per the 2022 annual report. Capital market operations are more volatile and sometimes crash a quarter (we saw this with BMO in 2020). However, it’s also an amazing source of growth. Once again, TD and RY are close in term of assets, popularity, and yield!

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO / ANCUF)

7th place – 968 members

You know I love Couche-Tard and it was part of the favorites last year. It’s back to the 7th place after being out of the top 10 last year. Couche-Tard has proven quite resilient over the past few years. The company rewards shareholders with constant growth across all business segments. If you think ATD is expensive today, remember that it’s trading at the same PE ratio it was in 2018. The only difference is that ATD has more than doubled its EPS in the past 5 years.

Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.UN.TO/BIPC.TO)

8th place – 898 members

I like BIPC for its wide diversification across multiple utility businesses: Utilities (30% of FFO) includes gas pipelines, electricity distribution and transmission lines, and smart meters. Transport (30%) includes railroads, terminals (ports), and toll roads. Midstream (30%) includes transmission pipelines, natural gas storage, and processing plants and polypropylene production capacity. Finally, Data (10%) consists of telecom towers, fiber optic cables and 50+ data centers. Keep in mind BIPC’s a complex business with opaque financial statements. It’s not for everyone.

Discover even more great dividend growth stocks. Download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly!

Brookfield Renewable (BEP.UN.TO/BEPC.TO)

9th place – 866 members

BEPC took a big hit on the market this year, with its stock showing a double-digit decline in 2023 and down over 40% over the past 3 years. You’re probably wondering why you bought it if you focus on short-term returns. I feel your pain. I hold shares too, I’m down 20%, but I don’t mind much though since I intend to hold BEPC for a very long time.  Brookfield is all about “patient capital”.

Scotiabank (BNS.TO / BNS)

10th place – 845 members

I’m still not a fan of BNS. While it offers a juicy yield, it has lagged its peers for over 10 years now. Turns out its exposure to Central and South America hasn’t paid off as anticipated. It’s a source of volatility rather than one of consistently higher profits.

11th to 25th Most Popular

Many of “usual suspects” in this list. I own shares of many of them.

COMPANY NAME TICKER SECTOR
Canadian National Railway CNR.TO / CNI Industrial
National Bank NA.TO Financial services
Emera EMA.TO Utilities
TC Energy TRP.TO / TRP Energy
Canadian National Resources CNQ.TO / CNQ Energy
Algonquin Power AQN.TO / AQN Utilities
CIBC CM.TO / CM Financial services
Granite REIT GRT.UN.TO REIT
BMO BMO.TO / BMO Financial services
Power Corp. POW.TO Financial services
Manulife MFC.TO / MFC Financial services
Magna International MG.TO / MGA Consumer Discretionary
Canadian Tire CTC.A.TO Consumer Discretionary
Suncor SU.TO / SU Energy
Brookfield Corp. BN.TO / BN Financial services

Final Thought

While it’s always fun to feed your curiosity, never let a list like this replace your investment process. It won’t do much good to just pile up others’ ideas in your portfolio without the conviction that they fit with your strategy. I see this list as a good group of stocks to start a research project. But that’s definitely just the beginning. There is a lot more digging required before pulling the trigger…

Buy List – October 2023: Canadian National Railway

My buy list for October 2023 has a new entry: Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO /CNI). I just love buying Canadian National Railway when the market expects a recession!

Railways are incredibly stable because there aren’t any other assets that can replace them in North America. Yet each time transportation volumes go down, the market tends to sell them off. It happened last in 2016, and we highlighted CNR.TO / CNI back then as well. Here we go for another round!

Canadian National Railway logoCanadian National Railway has been known as “best-in-class” for operating ratios for many years. CNR continuously worked on improving its margins and was among the first to do so. Today, peers have caught up and all railways are managed the same way.

CNR’s transportation activities are well diversified across seven different industries. Its exclusive access to the Prince Rupert port is advantageous for intermodal transportation. CNR enjoys a very strong economic moat as railways are virtually impossible to replicate.

Learn strategies for generating income for life. Download our guide now.

CNR.TO Business Model

A transportation and logistics company, Canadian National Railway’s services include rail, intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. CNR rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage, and more.

Cute toy train set with wooden rails, trees, a station, signage and conductorCNR’s intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with about 23 strategically placed intermodal terminals, with services including temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics park, moving grain in containers, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others.

CNR’s trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services. Its supply chain services offer comprehensive services across a range of industries and product types. CNR transports more than 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America every year.

Investment Thesis       

Canadian National Railway owns unmatched quality railroad assets. With its strong economic moat, we can rely on increasing cash flows each year. There isn’t a more efficient way to transport commodities than by train.

The good thing about CNR is that investors can always wait for a down cycle to buy. Since we see railroads as attractive investments, we usually spot the opportune moment. Considering Q2 2023 results, it seems such a moment is here.

Learn strategies for generating income for life. Download our guide now.

CNR.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

With its Q2 results Canadian National Railway sent a strong signal that the economy is slowing down with revenue down 7% and EPS down 8% for the quarter. Revenue decreased mostly because of lower volumes of intermodal, crude oil, U.S. grain exports, and forest products. Volumes shrunk as demand for freight services to move consumer goods lowered and Canadian wildfires caused customer outages.

Rounding up the reasons for the decline were lower ancillary services including container storage, and lower fuel surcharge revenues as fuel prices decreased. CNR updated its full-year outlook, now expects flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS.

Potential Risks for CNR.TO

Railroad maintenance is capital intensive and could adversely affect CNR in the future. It’s a difficult balance to obtain an efficient operating ratio and well-maintained railroads. To maintain its network, CNR must make substantial reinvestments continually. However, CNR continues to boast one of the best operating ratios in the industry.

From time to time, CNR’s growth can be negatively affected by its dependence on the Canadian resource markets. When demand for oil, forest, or grain products is low, demand for CNR’s services obviously slows down accordingly. For example, the pandemic caused a slowdown in weekly rail traffic of about 10% over the summer of 2020. As you can see in the graph below, even that didn’t derail (couldn’t resist) CNR’s revenue much or for very long.

Line graph showing CNR's revenue growth over 10 years- steady growth except in 2020-2021 due to the pandemic.

When the oil price is low, trucking steers some business away from railroads. CNR is a captive of its best assets since you can’t move railroads!

Get acquainted with other great Canadian stocks, read Canadian Forever Stock Selection.

CNR Dividend Growth Perspective

Canadian National Railway has successfully increased its dividend yearly since 1996. The management team ensures they use a good portion of CNR’s cash flow to maintain and improve railways, while rewarding shareholders with generous dividend payments. CNR exhibits an impressive dividend record with very low payout ratios. To learn more about payout ratios read this article.

Line graph of Canadian National Railway dividend amount for the last 10 years; yearly increases, with a generous increase early 2022 as business normalized after the peak of the pandemic.

While the business faces headwinds periodically, its dividend payment will not be affected. Shareholders can expect more high single-digit dividend increases. The railroad company kicked off 2023 with an impressive dividend increase of 8%. If you can grab CNR with a yield of approximately 2%, you’re making a good deal!

Learn strategies for generating income for life. Download our guide now.

Final Thoughts on Canadian National Railway

Despite CNR’s capital-intensive requirements and reliance on the Canadian resource markets, we believe Canadian National Railway will come sailing through the current economic downturn and maintain its dividend increases.

With CNR’s unmatched-quality railroad assets almost impossible to replicate, and its management taking on the challenges of the current environment, we could see more growth emerging from all this. Also, CNR will benefit from the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline which will drive demand for oil transport via railroads. With a current yield above 2%, CNR is definitely worth a look.

Retirement Tax Optimization Basics


Tax optimization is an important aspect of retirement planning. Beyond saving, investing, and accumulating wealth, examine how you can reduce the amount of tax you pay when retired.

Canadian currency, bills and coins, on white backgroundThis article doesn’t go deep into tax issues because each situation is different, with different applicable rules and tax rates. However, there are situations we all have in common upon retirement. After your retirement strategy is outlined, i.e., your global asset allocation, risk tolerance, types of investments, etc., you’re in a good position for some tax tweaking. Don’t do it the other way around.

Why do I believe one should perform tax optimization only after you have set your investing strategy? Because while it’s good to trim your tax burden, you should not do it at the expense of the bigger picture. In other words, I don’t think it’s all that bad to pay withholding taxes on dividends received if it enables you to have a more diversified and better performing portfolio.

See also Create your own Paycheck in Retirement

However, when it’s time to retire, the order and timing of withdrawals can greatly affect your budget. You can’t control your portfolio performance, but you can control a part of the taxes you’ll pay, or save, at retirement. Therefore, crunching numbers with a tax expert is likely to make a big difference in your lifestyle.

Canadians, learn about government retirement benefits.  Download our CPP and OAS guide.

My take on tax optimization

I’m not a tax expert, but after doing hundreds of financial plans for my clients as a financial planner back in my banking days, here are my conclusions.

First, know that there are no magic tricks for optimizing taxes. Any strategies viewed as “too aggressive” by regulators will be rejected and you’ll get a slap on the wrist

Two women talking while sitting at office table in front of brick wallThe best tax advice I can give you is quite simple: spend a few thousand dollars with a fee-based financial planner and an accountant. They’ll do the hard work and offer you a customized plan to optimize your taxes. Make your appointment, develop a plan, and avoid potentially costly mistakes.

To know more ahead of consulting an expert, or if you want to skip consulting and do it yourself, learn about the simple 3 Ds of tax optimization: Deduct – Defer – Divide.

Deduct: maximize deductions, reduce your taxable income

Anything you can use to reduce your taxable income automatically lowers your taxes, especially if you live in a country with increasing marginal tax rates like Canada. Examples of deductions you can use to reduce your income at any age include contributions to your retirement plans, interest paid on loans used to procure non-registered investments, and healthcare expenses.

Defer: postpone paying taxes as long as you can

Here’s a tip for my Canadian readers (I’m pretty sure it applies to Americans too, but you should verify this first). It sounds counter-intuitive, but in most cases, deferring the moment when you withdraw money from your tax-sheltered account (such as your RRSP account) is worth it. Here’s why.

The longer you wait to withdraw money from a tax-sheltered account or to trigger capital gains, the longer your money is growing tax-free. At retirement, it’s usually preferable to let your tax-sheltered account grow while withdrawing money from regular investment accounts, if possible. Remember that all investment income coming from a taxable account, whether it is withdrawn or reinvested, is income in your tax declaration.

Plant growing in clear glass pot filled with coinsSome retirees are tempted to withdraw money from tax-sheltered accounts earlier to pay less tax, as they assume their marginal tax rate to be lower at 60 years of age than at 85, when they anticipate they’ll have to withdraw more money. However, when you withdraw money, you pay the taxes immediately. The money paid to the government can’t compound going forward. Withdrawing at a younger age means you miss out on years of growth on tax paid.

For example, if you need $7,000, you could sell shares in a taxable account and pay a small amount in capital gains. Perhaps you’ll have to sell for $7,500 to receive $7,000 net of taxes. You could also sell for $10,000 in your RRSP to receive $7,000 after taxes. That extra $2,500 paid in taxes won’t compound tax free inside your RRSP for the next 20 years. At a 7% investment return, each $2,500 turns into $9,674 in 20 years from now. That’s almost 4 times the original amount!

Divide: divide your income with a spouse

Two cedar waxwing birds on a branch, with one giving a berry to the other

You can split assets or income sources with your spouse to keep each of your incomes in a lower marginal tax rate brackets. You’ll pay a lot less in tax if you split $100K of income 50-50 than keeping it solely under your name.

 

Tax optimization take away

Unfortunately, there are no secret ways to make taxes disappear, other than those usually referred to as fraud or evasion. If you’re Canadian and dislike the OAS claw back, look at it this way: being asked to payback some of the OAS benefits you received is a good problem to have; it means you likely have plenty of money to enjoy your retirement.

Canadians, learn about government retirement benefits.  Download our CPP and OAS guide.

An accountant can do a great job at drawing up a plan to optimize your taxes; the best way to approach tax optimization is to run multiple scenarios and see the impact of each choice. Don’t forget to always focus on your investment strategy first. Saving money in taxes is great, but making higher total returns is even better! Adding risk or reducing total return for the sake of taxes isn’t a good idea.

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