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INVESTING THE CANADIAN WAY

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Dividend Stocks

Canadian Stocks Paying USD Dividend or Trading on US Market

Paper house made with US currency billsCanadian stocks paying USD dividends or trading on an U.S. market (either the NYSE or NASDAQ), or both. Why? Canadian dividend stocks are fascinating. Many of them operate in small niches and pay handsome dividends.

Should you invest in a Canadian stock on the U.S. market? What is the advantage of having a dividend paid in USD by a Canadian company? Are there withholding taxes on USD dividends?

Let’s answer these questions. We’ll also cover Canadian companies paying a dividend in USD for my fellow Canadians who want to enjoy a sunny retirement down south without worrying about currency fluctuations.

Create income for life. Download our guide!

That darned exchange rate

One question that keeps coming up since the creation of Dividend Stocks Rock in 2013 is:

“As a Canadian, should I invest in the U.S. stock market?”

This is usually followed by…

“I’m asking because the currency rate isn’t good right now”

Is it really? Let’s look at the Canadian Dollar vs. the US dollar since the 70’s:

Graph showing evolution of the value of the Canadian dollar vs. US currency since the 1970s

What we see is that we used to trade close to par in the 70’s (remember, it wasn’t a glorious decade for our southern neighbors). Then, it’s a rollercoaster ride between $0.65 to $1.05 depending on the decade. Now, let me work some magic with this graph and present another perspective:

Graph showing the change in percentage of the value of the Canadian dollar vs. the US currency since the 1970s

Over the past 50 years, the dollar moved by 26%. In annualized return, we’re talking about the equivalent of an “expensive” ETF fee (0.456). The largest movement was from 2002 to 2007 (remember the oil boom with oil income trusts?) where our dollar surged by 71%. The difference between the bottom in 2002 and today is a 16% upside fluctuation.

Here’s the range of risk regarding CAD vs USD: over a short period of time, one investment in “bad” currency could make you lose a lot (71% between 2002 and 2007). However, if your investment horizon is over five years (seriously, if you’ll need your capital in 5 years or less, stop investing in equities right now), chances are the impact of currency fluctuations will be less than 1% per year.

Right now, we are not close to a historical high or a historical low. Therefore, your risk of losing massively in investing in USD for Canadians or in CAD for Americans isn’t that important all things considered.

Cross-border investing: is it worth it?

However, the risk of not investing in those unique opportunities for each country is great. Americans, you won’t find better banks, telcos, pipelines and utilities outside of Canada. Canadians, you won’t find better exposure to international markets, new technology and the world’s most popular brands outside of the U.S.

If you can combine both markets to your advantage, you’ll build the most powerful and stable dividend growth portfolio. You’ll be well on your way to achieving your retirement dreams.

I’ve discussed at length my interest in U.S. dividend growers. I’m pretty sure I’ve convinced most of my fellow Canadians to consider U.S. exposure in their portfolios. However, I haven’t fully covered the advantage for Americans to invest in Canadian Stocks.

Since we are talking about currencies, let’s look at these topics:

  1. Canadian dividend stocks trading on U.S. markets for Americans to benefit from our best sectors.
  2. Canadian dividend stocks paying dividends in USD for Canadians to retire in Florida or Arizona.

Learn about how Canadians can obtain a currency hedge and buy US stocks at a lower price, by reading Canadian Depositary Receipts (CDRs).

Create income for life. Download our guide!

Canadian Dividend Stocks trading on the NYSE

Good news, the list of Canadian dividend stocks trading on U.S. markets isn’t exhaustive. I’ve compiled a complete list to the best of my knowledge.

You can download the list here.

Fortunately for you, there are several great options on this short list.

Canadian banks

(RY, TD, BMO, CM, BNS): Canadian banks are highly regulated, but also highly protected. They are comfortably doing business in a small oligopoly. If you haven’t considered Canadian banks yet, now’s your chance. The big 5 are trading at 9.5-11.5 times their earnings. RY and TD are my favorite from this group (more on National Bank later). A special mention to Brookfield Assets Management (BAM) which is an asset manager, not a bank. Still, it’s a company you should consider. You can view our complete Canadian banks ranking.

Life insurance companies

(MFC, SLF): Canadian Life Insurance companies could be interesting now that interest rates appear to be increasing. My favorite is Great-West Lifeco, but sadly it’s not part of this list. SLF would be my pick instead.

Telecoms

Telecommunications towers seen from a distance at dusk(BCE, TU, RCI, ): Like Canadian banks, telecoms operate in a small oligopoly where 90% of the wireless market is controlled by BCE, TU and RCI. BCE and TU are long-time dividend growers. The former will offer you a stable yield while the latter will offer you a great combination of growth and yield. 

Utilities

(FTS, BEP, BIP, TA): If you look them up at DSR you will notice they all have strong ratings, but TA.  BEP and BIP also pay their dividends in USD. Therefore, there is no reason to not consider those great dividend growers!

Energy

(ENB, CNQ, TRP, SU, IMO, PBA, CPG, ERF, OVV): While there is a wide range of choices in this category, I would cut the selection to only include dividend growers. ENB and TRP are probably the most reliable pipelines in North America while CNQ and IMO (which is partially owned by XOM) are two other great dividend growers. They have proven (especially in 2020), that they can weather any storms and keep their promises to shareholders. 

Industrials

Canadian National Railway train crossing a prairie full of yellow flowers(TFII, CNI, CP, STN, WCN, TRI): This is clearly a widely diversified group, but all of them merit a look nonetheless. CNI and CP are among the strongest railroad companies in North America. WCN pays a small yield and is a very stable business. Thomson Reuters shows 28 years of consecutive dividend increases. TFI International is one of the fastest growing trucking companies in North America.

Materials

(FNV, NTR, GOLD, AEM, WPM, PAAS, MEOH, TECK, CCJ): You know I’m not a big fan of materials, but FNV is in another class. This is a rare gold-related company showing several years with dividend increases. NTR is also an interesting pick if the demand for potash remains strong.

Others

(MGA and OTEX): Magna International (MGA) is an amazing company. You can surf on the car industry along with the EV trend through Magna without having to take the risk of another automotive crash. The company is one of the largest auto parts sellers in the world. It’s a cash flow machine! As for Open Text, this is a SAAS business with over 100,000 customers around the world. However, I must admit that you have better choices on the US market if you are looking for a solid tech stock!

If you are American, I’d say that investing in Canadian banks, telecoms and utilities would add a lot of value to your portfolio. We have many choices in the energy & materials sectors as well, but I’m not a fan of those sectors.

What about pink sheets?

Pink sheets are listings for stocks that trade over the counter (OTC) rather than on a major U.S. stock exchange. They’re usually companies that can’t meet the requirements for listing on the major markets. They often have a “bad reputation” as many of them are penny stocks with limited liquidity. As a dividend investor, this isn’t exactly what you want to add to your portfolio.

However, you will also find amazing Canadian stocks are listed as pink sheets, such as National Bank (NTIOF), Emera (EMRAF), Power Corporation (PWCDF) and Alimentation Couche-Tard (ANCTF). Those are far from being penny stocks. Emera is the smallest company among this list with a market cap over $15B. While there is less volume for those companies, you can add them to your portfolio if you have a long-term horizon. If you’re a DSR member, I invite you to  read our analyses of these stocks on the Canadian side if you have doubt about a pink sheet stock.

Create income for life. Download our guide!

Canadian Dividend Stocks Paying USD dividends

Some Canadian companies pay their dividend in USD. They choose to this usually after a business analysis shows most of the company’s revenues are made in the United States. By paying their dividend in the same currency as they generate their revenues, they reduce the risk of currency fluctuation. An example is TFI International (TFII) that changed its CAD dividend to USD after the integration of a massive acquisition in the U.S. (UPS freight was purchased for $800M in 2021).

Is there a tax implication?

In most cases, dividends paid in U.S. dollars by Canadian companies are eligible for the dividend tax credit (source).  It’s always a good practice to verify this in the dividend section of the company’s investors’ website. The dividend may also be deposited in your account automatically in CAD. Again, it depends on the company. Those are questions you can ask your broker to ensure you receive the right dividend in the right currency!

Advantage of Canadian stocks paying USD dividends

Senior citizens enjoying a sunny day at oceanfront beachIn general, the advantage of Canadian stocks paying a USD dividend is more for the company, because it generates most of its revenues in USD as explained earlier. For investors, it could be a source of headaches or frustrations (you don’t want your broker making a sweet 2% conversion rate fee on your dividend, right?). However, if you plan a vacation or retirement in the U.S., having Canadian stocks paying their dividend in Uncle Sam’s dollar is a natural hedge against currency fluctuation. You can build a part of your portfolio with those Canadian stocks along with other US stocks and you’ll be set to never have to worry about converting your money “at a bad rate” in the future.

The list of Canadian stocks trading on the NYSE counts 75 companies and the Canadian stocks paying USD dividends is relatively small (35 companies), but you will find some common names.

You can download the list here.

Buy List Stock for January 2024: Stella-Jones (SJ.TO)

A new Canadian buy list stock on my list for January 2024 is Stella-Jones (SJ.TO), a special beast in the materials sector. While its business model revolves around lumber prices, most of its revenue comes from products essential to infrastructure projects: utility poles and railway ties. SJ.TO’s business is less affected by price fluctuations than if it was all about residential lumber. Find out more about why I bought shares of SJ.TO in December 2023.

See my U.S. buy list stock pick for this month here.

Stella-Jones Business Model

Stella-Jones Inc. is a Canada-based producer of pressure-treated wood products. It supplies various electrical utilities and telecommunication companies with wood utility poles and North America’s short line and commercial railroad operators with railway ties and timbers. SJ.TO also provides industrial products including wood for railway bridges and crossings, marine and foundation pilings, construction timbers, and coal tar-based products.

Additionally, the Company manufactures and distributes premium treated residential lumber and accessories to Canadian and American retailers for outdoor applications, with a significant portion of the business devoted to servicing Canadian customers through its national manufacturing and distribution network. The Company operates 45 wood treating plants and a coal tar distillery across Canada and the United States, complemented by a procurement and distribution network.

Discover other great picks in our 2024 Top Stocks booklet. Download it now.

Investment Thesis for SJ.TO 

With utilities and railroads as its main customers, Stella-Jones will keep getting sizable orders and getting paid. SJ.TO’s revenue surged between 2017 and 2021 because demand for its products was strong from both sides of the border. Business has slowed since the second half of 2021, but SJ.TO continues to grow. In 2023, it reported impressive numbers as demand for infrastructure products is surging. With 15 facilities in Canada and 25 on U.S. soil, Stella-Jones can deliver its products promptly.

The company has proven to be a defensive pick during the pandemic. The “lumber COVID-hype” is over, but SJ.TO remains a solid business benefiting from multiple growth vectors. While residential construction may slow down due to higher interest rates, the need for more infrastructure and major projects continue to drive sales higher.

A portion of the company’s growth in recent quarters was fueled by recent acquisitions and margin expansion. Management mentioned it was seeking acquisition targets – we like that!

Buy list stock. Graphs showing 5-year evolution of Stella-Jones's stock price, revenue, EPS, and dividend payment

SJ.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

Recently, Stella-Jones impressed the market and analysts with a killer quarter; revenue up 13%, and EPS up 79%! Excluding the acquisition of utility pole manufacturer Texas Electric and the positive currency impact, sales were still up 7%. Despite understandable lower sales for residential lumber, the company saw an organic growth of 17% from its infrastructure-related businesses. Utility sales were up 32.3%, Railway ties +15.6%. Earnings jumped on expanding margins in SJ.TO infrastructure-related businesses, helped by businesses acquired in late 2022 and 2023.

Potential Risks for Stella-Jones

SJ.TO is highly dependent on macroeconomic factors. Although the company enjoys a stable replacement business for railway ties and utility poles, those segments do not always grow at a fast pace. The residential lumber division depends on the health of the housing market. Fueled by strong results, SJ.TO’s stock price skyrocketed in 2023. It’s always an additional risk to buy when a stock almost doubles in value.

Going forward, Stella-Jones will remain dependent on lumber pricing. If demand is strong, it will seem to be a robust business. Like any commodity producer, it experiences uptrends and downtrends. This seems to be a good deal with a forward PE ratio below 14.

Discover other great picks in our 2024 Top Stocks booklet. Download it now.

SJ.TO Dividend Growth Perspective

Another reason I chose SJ.TO as a buy list stock is that it’s dividend has almost doubled over the past 5 years, yet the company exhibits a very low payout ratio. Unfortunately, as is the case with many low-yielding stocks, the combination of a low payout ratio and low yield makes the DDM calculation inadequate. Going forward, shareholders can expect mid single-digit dividend growth. The latest dividend increases were more than generous (going from $0.15/share to $0.18/share in 2021 and then to $0.20/share in 2022, and now to $0.23/share in 2023), but for planning and valuation purposes, we would rather stick with a more conservative scenario.

Final Thoughts on Stella-Jones

In 2023, the company reported impressive numbers with demand for infrastructure products surging; despite a surging stock price in 2023, it still trades at an attractive forward PE of 14; infrastructure and major projects should continue to drive sales higher; the company is on the lookout for more acquisition targets. So, lots of growth vectors on its dashboard.

What’s not to like? Stella-Jones is fully deserving of a spot as a buy list stock for many dividend growth investors.

2023 Year-End Review

Our 2023 year-end review in four words:  Different Investors, Different Returns. Some investors had a great year and are happy that the market is “finally back”. Others saw their portfolio value decline. What explains these discrepancies in returns in 2023?

Asset and Sector Allocation

Asset and sector allocation is what made the difference between happy and disappointed investors in 2023.

As you can see in this graph, the year was quite different depending on whether you were invested in Canada, the U.S., or heavily in the technology sector…

Graph showing total returns for the U.S. and Canadian markets, and those of the information technology sector

Excluding the latest mini bull run provoked by hints that interest rate hikes are over, the Canadian market was heading toward a flat year or worse. Across sectors, the performance in Canada and the U.S. was quite different for 2023. Next, we look at the total returns for each sector in 2023.

Learn how to create your own paycheck with our Dividend Income for Life guide!

Total Returns by Sector

Below are the year’s total returns per sector in the U.S.

Graph of 2023 total returns by sector on the U.S. market

We see the surging technology sector leading the way, followed by the communication services sector. It wasn’t the AT&T’s and Verizon’s of this sector that pushed it to such heights but rather tech-focused communications stocks such as Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOG) and Netflix (NFLX). I must add the communication services ETF in the graph is a isn’t really a good representation; it skews the results favorable because it’s 47% invested in Meta and Alphabet.

While the energy sector was the savior in 2022, it was flat in 2023. The utility sector is the biggest loser, hurt by higher interest rates and poor performance from all renewable energy stocks. For more on that, see What’s Happening with Renewables?

On the Canadian side, shown in the next graph, we see similar trends, but with a stronger performance from the energy sector than in the U.S. Take the BMO’s technology, communications, and consumer discretionary ETFs with a grain of salt because each includes several U.S. stocks. Banks and telecommunications companies disappointed in 2023 as did utilities and REITs.

Graph of 2023 total returns by sector on the Canadian market

The investment year 2023 could be summarized as follows:

  • If you focused on low-yield, high dividend growth stocks, it was a success.
  • If you focused on income and high yield, it was a bad year.

What’s next?

We have been spoiled over the past twelve years. In general, an economic cycle lasts about 5 to 8 years. That includes a bear market and a bull market and everything in between. The last real bear market we had began in 2008 and ended in 2009. That was 14 years ago.

Currently, we live in a strange world: inflation hurts consumers’ budgets forcing them to tighten their belt with high interest rates putting even more pressure on them and yet, the unemployment rate remains low. Why? Demographics: as our population ages, many retire, and we don’t have enough babies to take those jobs.

During the second part of 2023, we saw signs that higher interest rates were finally catching up with the economy and slowing it down. Inflation has lowered, GDP isn’t as strong (Canada even reported a negative GDP late in 2023), and unemployment rates on both sides of the border are going up by a bit.

Learn how to create your own paycheck with our Dividend Income for Life guide!

If you focus on your portfolio yield, you were unhappy with your results in 2023 and my guess is that it won’t be easy in 2024 either.

New inflation data hints at a pause in interest rates. We might even talk about rate decreases later in 2024. However, as the steak price won’t get back to 2021 levels, we are not going to see 2% mortgages or debentures in 2024. Companies will have to deal with higher interest rates when refinancing.

I said it over and over; we will continue to feel the lagging impact of those interest rate increases for many years.

Different Year, Same Plan

A picture of a compass Studies show that most individual investors like you and me lag the market… big time. Think of famous investor Peter Lynch who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990 generating an annualized return of 29%. Fidelity later revealed that the average Magellan Fund investor lost money during this period. How is that possible? Investors were simply not investing with conviction, and they didn’t stick to their plan, especially at times when the market dropped.

In 2022, I was overconfident, and I drifted away from my investment rules and process. As a result, I suffered from three bad investment decisions, Algonquin (AQN.TO), Sylogist (SYZ.TO), and VF Corp (VFC), in a brief period of time, which is never good for the investor’s ego.

In early 2023, I quickly got back into the driver’s seat and acted. I sold the three dividend cutters, took the loss of roughly 50% on each stock, and moved on by focusing on dividend growers with strong dividend triangle.

I could have prevented part of those losses by following my own rules, but I didn’t. Fortunately, my investment structure protects me from major negative impacts from bad investments as they are limited in size in my portfolio. Again, this highlights the importance of following your plan and sticking to your investment strategy.

For 2024, I intend to follow the same plan. My investment strategy stays the same: have a strong investment thesis backed with numbers and select companies with minimal downside.

Wishing you a successful investing year in 2024!

25 Most Popular Canadian Stocks at DSR

Looking at the 25 most popular Canadian stocks among members of DSR Pro is not only fun, but it can reveal opportunities we might have overlooked. Last week, we covered the top 5. If you missed it, read it here. This article provides the investment thesis for the stocks that are the 6th to 10th most popular, and list those in the 11th to 25th positions along with their respective sectors.

I pulled the most popular stocks from the DSR database based of the number of times they appear across the 2,289 DSR PRO members’ portfolios, not by looking at individual portfolios. This is strictly based on how frequently each stock appears in the database, not on the value invested (which I don’t know).

See also the U.S. stocks most popular with DSR Pro members.

Discover even more great dividend growth stocks. Download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly!

Royal Bank (RY.TO / RY)

6th place – 1165 members

Royal Bank plays a similar role as TD in a portfolio. I prefer RY for its greater diversification. I like its business distribution across classic banking operations (40.4%), wealth management (29.8%), capital markets (18.3%), insurance (7%) and investor & treasury services (4.4%) as per the 2022 annual report. Capital market operations are more volatile and sometimes crash a quarter (we saw this with BMO in 2020). However, it’s also an amazing source of growth. Once again, TD and RY are close in term of assets, popularity, and yield!

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO / ANCUF)

7th place – 968 members

You know I love Couche-Tard and it was part of the favorites last year. It’s back to the 7th place after being out of the top 10 last year. Couche-Tard has proven quite resilient over the past few years. The company rewards shareholders with constant growth across all business segments. If you think ATD is expensive today, remember that it’s trading at the same PE ratio it was in 2018. The only difference is that ATD has more than doubled its EPS in the past 5 years.

Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP.UN.TO/BIPC.TO)

8th place – 898 members

I like BIPC for its wide diversification across multiple utility businesses: Utilities (30% of FFO) includes gas pipelines, electricity distribution and transmission lines, and smart meters. Transport (30%) includes railroads, terminals (ports), and toll roads. Midstream (30%) includes transmission pipelines, natural gas storage, and processing plants and polypropylene production capacity. Finally, Data (10%) consists of telecom towers, fiber optic cables and 50+ data centers. Keep in mind BIPC’s a complex business with opaque financial statements. It’s not for everyone.

Discover even more great dividend growth stocks. Download our Rock Stars list, updated monthly!

Brookfield Renewable (BEP.UN.TO/BEPC.TO)

9th place – 866 members

BEPC took a big hit on the market this year, with its stock showing a double-digit decline in 2023 and down over 40% over the past 3 years. You’re probably wondering why you bought it if you focus on short-term returns. I feel your pain. I hold shares too, I’m down 20%, but I don’t mind much though since I intend to hold BEPC for a very long time.  Brookfield is all about “patient capital”.

Scotiabank (BNS.TO / BNS)

10th place – 845 members

I’m still not a fan of BNS. While it offers a juicy yield, it has lagged its peers for over 10 years now. Turns out its exposure to Central and South America hasn’t paid off as anticipated. It’s a source of volatility rather than one of consistently higher profits.

11th to 25th Most Popular

Many of “usual suspects” in this list. I own shares of many of them.

COMPANY NAME TICKER SECTOR
Canadian National Railway CNR.TO / CNI Industrial
National Bank NA.TO Financial services
Emera EMA.TO Utilities
TC Energy TRP.TO / TRP Energy
Canadian National Resources CNQ.TO / CNQ Energy
Algonquin Power AQN.TO / AQN Utilities
CIBC CM.TO / CM Financial services
Granite REIT GRT.UN.TO REIT
BMO BMO.TO / BMO Financial services
Power Corp. POW.TO Financial services
Manulife MFC.TO / MFC Financial services
Magna International MG.TO / MGA Consumer Discretionary
Canadian Tire CTC.A.TO Consumer Discretionary
Suncor SU.TO / SU Energy
Brookfield Corp. BN.TO / BN Financial services

Final Thought

While it’s always fun to feed your curiosity, never let a list like this replace your investment process. It won’t do much good to just pile up others’ ideas in your portfolio without the conviction that they fit with your strategy. I see this list as a good group of stocks to start a research project. But that’s definitely just the beginning. There is a lot more digging required before pulling the trigger…

Most Popular Canadian Stocks at DSR – Top 5

Why look at the 5 most popular Canadian stocks with members of DSR Pro? To get ideas! You have your own process to select stocks, but seeing other investor’s favorites can open the door for new opportunities. It’s a great starting point for your research. I also do it out of curiosity 😉.

I surveyed the DSR database to pull out the 25 most popular Canadian and U.S. stocks, not looking at individual portfolios, but rather the number of times each stock appears across the 2,289 DSR PRO members’ portfolios. This is not based on value; I don’t know how much is invested in each stock.

This week, we have a fairly detailed look at the top 5 Canadian stocks, what I like and don’t like about each one and the roles they can play in a portfolio. We’ll see the remaining 20 in a later article.

 5 U.S. stocks most popular with DSR Pro members

Never let a list like this replace your investment process. Don’t load up on these stocks without the conviction that they fit with your strategy. It’s a good list to start a research project, but that’s just the beginning. There’s more digging required before pulling the trigger…

Sign up for our upcoming webinar: Most Popular Dividend Stocks – Best Protection and Better Returns 

TELUS (T.TO / TU)

1st place – 1451 members

Again, this year, Telus is the champ. It’s my favorite telecom. Most of its revenue comes from its wireless business. I like the wireless industry in Canada; there’s still organic growth potential and the development of 5G will enable additional growth vectors. I like how Telus diversified its business through artificial intelligence, healthcare, and agriculture, instead of going after more media business, Telus uses technology to catapult its business, which could be a hit or a miss.

Telus logoWhat’s not to like? DEBT! Telecoms rack-up debt faster than teenagers eat burgers! Right now, the narrative doesn’t fit with the numbers. For 10 years, Telus had a clear plan: get as much cheap debt as possible for investments (CAPEX) to fuel stronger generation of cash flows from operations. Ten years later, it’s time to show that stronger cash flow and smaller CAPEX. It’s improving, but not fast enough. I want to see Telus’s free cash flow cover the dividend payment. Management seems confident though; it raised the dividend again in November.

Telus pleases income-seeking investors with its generous yield, and also attracts growth investors with its technology growth segments. A great balance of growth and “sleep well at night” ingredients. A good fit for both “retirement” and “growth” portfolios. No wonder it’s one of the most popular Canadians stocks.

TD BANK (TD.TO / TD)

2nd place (up from 5th) – 1279 members

The largest Canadian bank in terms of assets, TD operates a classic business model mostly around savings & loans. Everybody likes Canadian banks, right? When you pick among the top 2 largest Canadian banks you can’t go wrong.

I like TD’s US exposure for additional growth (usually, the U.S. economy grows faster than the Canadian) and its 13.5% ownership of Charles Schwab (SCHW). I also appreciate TD’s focus on classic banking activities with some wealth management for good measure. Nothing eccentric. You can count on its solid balance sheet to keep up with its dividend growth policy.

TD Bank logoThere isn’t much to dislike about TD. I rank it third behind Royal Bank and National Bank only because of its larger exposure to the loan market. A more classic bank, TD takes fewer risks in the stock market, but more for mortgages and commercial loans. With high interest rates and possibly a slowing economy, all eyes on its provisions for credit losses. While a great source of growth, TD’s presence in the U.S. can expose it to a more volatile economic environment. When it comes to banks, it’s the wild west in the U.S.

TD is another sleep-well-at-night stock. Interestingly, you’ll get a fair share of growth at the same time!

Sign up for our upcoming webinar: Most Popular Dividend Stocks – Best Protection and Better Returns 

FORTIS (FTS.TO / FTS)

3rd place (up from 7th) – 1223 members

A big jump for Fortis, which fully merits a spot in the most popular Canadian stocks. I increased my position in this solid utility after the Algonquin debacle. Fortis is a classic utility offering transmission and distribution of electricity and natural gas to its customers. It’s virtually 100% regulated, leading to stability and predictable cash flow. This sustainable cash flow has resulted four decades of dividend payments!

Fortis logoFortis invested aggressively over the past few years resulting in strong growth from its core business. You can expect revenues to keep growing as expansion continues. I like its goal of increasing its exposure to renewable energy from 2% of its assets in 2019 to 7% in 2035. In its five-year capital investment plan of ~$20B up to 2026, only 33% is financed through debt, while 61% comes from cash from their own operations.

Fortis’s capital-intensive operations make it sensitive to interest rates. Many income-seeking investors left equities to go to bonds and GICs. Also, with most of its assets regulated, it must get regulatory approval for each rate increase to its customers.

Fortis remains a utility; don’t expect astronomical growth. It’s definitely a defensive stock you can count on no matter what the economy’s like. It will keep paying a decent yield with a mid-single digit dividend growth rate.

ENBRIDGE (ENB.TO / ENB)

4th place (down from 2nd) – 1184 members

Income-seeking investors want to keep Enbridge and its 7%+ yield. I get that, but I got rid of my shares this year. ENB isn’t a bad company, but it lacks growth vectors, which doesn’t fit with my dividend growth strategy.

Like a toll road, Enbridge collects money day and night from oil & gas companies that use its “roads”, i.e., “pipelines”. We need oil & gas; Enbridge provides an impressive network of pipelines covering North America. Pipelines usually enjoy long-term contracts, sheltering them from short-term commodity price movements. ENB is diversifying through acquisitions in the natural gas business. It makes sense to lower exposure to crude oil. With 28 consecutive years with a dividend increase, you can rely on Enbridge to honor its shareholders’ investment.

Enbridge logoWhat’s not to like? Legal battles and debt! Building, maintaining, and replacing pipelines has become a toxic topic. Politicians and regulators are cautious about projects related to oil & gas transportation; they have environmental impacts and are increasingly unpopular with the public. So, more legal battles and fees, and increased likelihood that projects go sideways. This explains why Enbridge offers such a generous yield.

I like the move into the natural gas business, but not piling on more debt to do so. At one point, Enbridge has to pay down its debts. I’ll keep an eye on ENB’s dividend growth. It has slowed down to 3% per year after a generous run including double-digit increases. Does it make sense for management to increase it every year?

Truly the definition of a deluxe bond, Enbridge provides reliable income, but don’t expect much capital growth. Continue to monitor this one quarterly.

BCE (BCE.TO / BCE)

5th place (down from 4th) – 1175 member

Bell is a classic telecom company that combines wireline, wireless, and media. Most of its revenue comes from wireless and wireline business and 13-14% from Media. BCE’s yield is its most appealing feature. With interest rates on the rise, BCE still beats most GIC’s with a 7%+ yield. That generous payout comes with steady increases since 2009. Will it continue forever? That’s another story.

As BCE has limited competition and high barriers to entry. With its range of products, BCE can easily increase revenues generated from different customers. 5G should be a tailwind for years to come. BCE enjoys a relatively stable business generating predictable cash flows.

BCE logoHowever, it could become another AT&T (T). T pleased investors for years until things fell apart and ended up another high yielder nightmare for investors. With high interest rates, BCE’s debt burden could hinder its ability to increase dividends. Always monitor the dividend growth and start worrying if the trend slows down. Finally, if 5G doesn’t generate the expected cash flow, I wonder where BCE will find its growth.

This stock is a deluxe bond crafted for income-seeking investors. As long as the company shows increasing cash flow from operations and reduces its CAPEX to generate sufficient cash flow to cover the dividend, you’re in good hands.

Buy List stock for November 2023: TD Bank (TD.TO / TD)

A stock that remains on my buy list for November is Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO/TD). I look at TD as a core holding, because it meets all my investment requirements and it’s a stock that I would hold for a long time, while reviewing it quarterly for good measure. Here’ why.

TD Bank logoTD has a very lean structure that plays a significant role in its expansion. It also has a solid dividend growth history, and management recently rewarded shareholders with several dividend increases. Plus, it has a significant presence in the US compared to other Canadian banks.

TD.TO Business Model

Toronto-Dominion Bank operates as a bank in North America. TD’s segments include Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking.

  • Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking offers a full range of financial products and services to approximately 15 million customers in Canada.
  • S. Retail offers a range of financial products and services under the brand TD Bank, America’s Most Convenient Bank. It also TD Auto Finance U.S., TD Wealth (U.S.) business.
  • Wealth Management and Insurance provides wealth solutions and insurance protection to approximately six million customers in Canada.
  • Wholesale Banking operates under the brand name TD Securities and offers a range of capital markets and corporate and investment banking services to corporate, government, and institutional clients.

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TD Investment Thesis

Branch of TD bank at night with lit signOver the years, TD has increased its retail focus, driven by lower-risk businesses with stable, consistent earnings. The bank enjoys the largest or second largest market share for most key products in the Canadian retail segment. TD keeps things clean and simple as the bulk of its income comes from personal and commercial banking. It has sizeable exposure in major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Calgary, combined with a strong presence in the US.

With about a third of its business coming from the U.S., TD is the most “American” bank you’ll find in Canada. If you are looking for an investment in a straightforward bank, TD should be your pick as increasing retail focus, large market share in Canadian banking, and U.S. expansion are key growth enablers for TD Bank. The 13% stake in Charles Schwab (SCHW) is another interesting growth vector.

TD.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

In August, TD reported a disappointing quarter with net income down 2% and EPS down 5%, but it could have been worse. TD’s results were affected by amortization charges, acquisition & integration costs, the termination fee of the acquisition of First Horizon, and strategy costs to reduce the interest rate impact on their balance sheet.

Graphs showing evolution of TD Bank's revenue and EPS over 5 years

We do like a proactive bank that takes steps now instead of doing what US regional banks did a few months ago, which was nothing! Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking net income was down 1%, mainly due to higher provisions for credit losses (PCLs). US retail was down 9%, hurt by higher PCLs and termination fees on the acquisition. Wealth Management & Insurance was down 12% while Wholesale was flat. TD also announced a 5% share buyback program.

There weren’t any news about TD in October, so we are patiently waiting for the end of November to look at their earnings!

Potential Risks for TD Bank

The housing market has been a concern since 2012. However, TD seems to be managing its loan book wisely and the Canadian economy has been remarkably resilient as well. A higher insured mortgage level in the prairies seems adequate while TD continues to ride the ever-growing downtown Toronto housing market tailwind. As interest rates rise, TD’s loan book will profitably generate stronger income. However, this also comes with increased risk of defaults and slow volume growth.

TD must identify other growth vectors because consumers can’t borrow continuously, even more so with higher interest rates slowing down the economy. It is important to follow the bank’s provision for credit losses, which have risen in the latest quarters. So far, everything is under control, but a recession still looms. In early 2023, TD paid $1.6B in a settlement related to a Ponzi scheme (Stanford Litigation Settlement). While this is treated as a one-time event, it still affected their quarterly earnings report.

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TD.TO Dividend Growth Perspective

TD is a Canadian dividend aristocrat (which allows them a “pause” in their dividend increase streak). TD shareholders were lucky enough to enjoy a dividend increase in early 2020 (+6.8%), right before regulators forced a break in dividend growth. In 2021, the bank rewarded investors with a 12.7% dividend increase. It returned with a more regular increase in 2022 (+7.8%). Going forward, you can expect a mid-single-digit dividend increase as payout ratios are quite low and TD is well capitalized.

For more about dividend aristocrats and the paused dividend growth for Canadian banks, listen to my podcast.

Graph showing steadily increasing dividend payments for TD Bank over years, except when regulators forced pause during pandemic
Steady dividend growth except when regulators imposed a pause

Final Thoughts on this Buy List Stock

Its legal settlement early this year and the general economic landscape may have seemingly taken some of lustre away from TD, but it has a lot on offer for dividend-growth investors. A lean structure conducive to expansion; growth potential through its focus on Canadian retail banking, its US exposure, and its stake in Charles Schwab (SCHW); and dividend growth.

We have TD in the DSR retirement and 500K portfolio models, for both Canada and the US. A stock to consider if you’re looking for holdings in the financial sector.

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