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CNI stock

CNR and CNQ – Beat the Competition on Cost

CNR and CNQ are two companies that hold cost advantages over their competition. Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) is a transportation and logistics company while Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) is in oil & gas exploration and production.

They have a cost advantage because they can produce goods or services at a cheaper price than their competitors. A cost advantage can be used in two ways:

1) Crush the competition with low price

Often, the easiest way to gain market share is to sell at a cheaper price than their competitors. When they produce the same goods or services at a lower cost, they can undercut competition. This is what Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) does.

2) Sell at the same price, but make a lot more profit

When the business model permits, some companies will sell at the same price as their competitors. Their advantage is in the higher margin they enjoy thanks to their lower operations cost. They then become money-making machines. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) often does this.

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Canadian National Railway – Offering lower prices

Railroads are known to be one of, if not the cheapest way to transport goods across land. With Canada and the U.S. amongst the largest countries in the world, CNR (and Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP.TO for that matter) are quite popular. Railroads are less flexible than truck transport, but they are surely the lowest-cost transport.

Canadian National Railway logoBut CNR is more than railway transport! Its services also include intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. CNR’s rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage, and more. Intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with ~23 strategically placed intermodal terminals. These services include temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics parks, moving grain in containers, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others. Trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services.

CNR.TO dividend triangle as of May 2024
CNR.TO dividend triangle: trend of stock price, revenue, earnings per share, and dividends over 10 years

Known as “best-in-class” for operating ratios for years, CNR boasts strong operational performance, with velocity and speed staying solid metrics quarter after quarter. CNR has tirelessly improved its margins and was among the first railroad companies to do so. Today, its peers have caught up and are managed in the same way.

CNR profits from cost advantages over trucking and other transportation methods, and from the scale of its operations which is virtually impossible to replicate. These advantages give it what is called a wide economic moat, meaning that it will enjoy these benefits for 20 years or more. Therefore, it can count on increasing cash flows each year.

The good thing about CNR is that investors can always wait for a down cycle in the economy to invest in it. You can bank on it going back on a roll when things pick up and consumers and businesses buy more goods.

Canadian Natural Resources – Raking in the profits

A play in the energy sector is Canadian Natural Resources, an oil and gas exploration and production company. CNQ enjoys long-life assets with low declines in its reserves. The company can produce oil and natural gas at an extremely low cost. This enables CNQ to ramp up production when prices are up and boost their margins. During down cycles, it can slow down production and still be highly profitable. In other words, its cost advantage makes CNQ a cash flow-making machine.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) dividend triangle: revenu, EPS, and dividend growth over 10 years
CNQ.TO dividend triangle: trend of stock price, revenue, earnings per share, and dividends over 10 years

CNQ sits on a large asset of non-exploited oilsands and its break-even price for the WTI grade of crude is $35. However, the fact that oilsands are not exactly environmentally friendly and that more and more countries look to produce greener energy and electric cars does cool our enthusiasm a bit.

Despite this, CNQ is very well positioned to surf any oil boom. It invested heavily, and it is now generating higher free cash flow because of that capital spending. CNQ appears at the top of my list for a long-term play in the oil & gas industry. I also appreciate CNQ’s shareholder-friendly approach, as it will return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders after hitting $10B in net debt.

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Cost-advantaged companies in other industries

There are companies in other industries that also enjoy cost advantages over the competition. Think of Costco which positions itself as the largest customer of its suppliers to gain negotiating power and offer the lowest prices to its customers.

Walmart is another great example of a cost-advantaged business. As a dominant retailer and among the largest grocers in the U.S., WMT built its entire business model around offering “low prices every day”. Walmart “squeezes” every penny from its suppliers to 1) offer the cheapest price possible to customers and 2) crush most competitors. You don’t go to Walmart for its exceptional customer service, but rather to pay as low a price as possible for everyday goods.

The cost advantage can be deadly. Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos, once said “Your margin is my opportunity”. Companies, such as Barnes & Noble, thought they were doing well, and that no competition could kill them. Along came Amazon with a different business model focused on building a strong cost advantage. Barnes & Noble survived, barely, but it’s not a flourishing business anymore.

Buy List – October 2023: Canadian National Railway

My buy list for October 2023 has a new entry: Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO /CNI). I just love buying Canadian National Railway when the market expects a recession!

Railways are incredibly stable because there aren’t any other assets that can replace them in North America. Yet each time transportation volumes go down, the market tends to sell them off. It happened last in 2016, and we highlighted CNR.TO / CNI back then as well. Here we go for another round!

Canadian National Railway logoCanadian National Railway has been known as “best-in-class” for operating ratios for many years. CNR continuously worked on improving its margins and was among the first to do so. Today, peers have caught up and all railways are managed the same way.

CNR’s transportation activities are well diversified across seven different industries. Its exclusive access to the Prince Rupert port is advantageous for intermodal transportation. CNR enjoys a very strong economic moat as railways are virtually impossible to replicate.

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CNR.TO Business Model

A transportation and logistics company, Canadian National Railway’s services include rail, intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. CNR rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage, and more.

Cute toy train set with wooden rails, trees, a station, signage and conductorCNR’s intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with about 23 strategically placed intermodal terminals, with services including temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics park, moving grain in containers, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others.

CNR’s trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services. Its supply chain services offer comprehensive services across a range of industries and product types. CNR transports more than 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America every year.

Investment Thesis       

Canadian National Railway owns unmatched quality railroad assets. With its strong economic moat, we can rely on increasing cash flows each year. There isn’t a more efficient way to transport commodities than by train.

The good thing about CNR is that investors can always wait for a down cycle to buy. Since we see railroads as attractive investments, we usually spot the opportune moment. Considering Q2 2023 results, it seems such a moment is here.

Learn strategies for generating income for life. Download our guide now.

CNR.TO Last Quarter and Recent Activities

With its Q2 results Canadian National Railway sent a strong signal that the economy is slowing down with revenue down 7% and EPS down 8% for the quarter. Revenue decreased mostly because of lower volumes of intermodal, crude oil, U.S. grain exports, and forest products. Volumes shrunk as demand for freight services to move consumer goods lowered and Canadian wildfires caused customer outages.

Rounding up the reasons for the decline were lower ancillary services including container storage, and lower fuel surcharge revenues as fuel prices decreased. CNR updated its full-year outlook, now expects flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS.

Potential Risks for CNR.TO

Railroad maintenance is capital intensive and could adversely affect CNR in the future. It’s a difficult balance to obtain an efficient operating ratio and well-maintained railroads. To maintain its network, CNR must make substantial reinvestments continually. However, CNR continues to boast one of the best operating ratios in the industry.

From time to time, CNR’s growth can be negatively affected by its dependence on the Canadian resource markets. When demand for oil, forest, or grain products is low, demand for CNR’s services obviously slows down accordingly. For example, the pandemic caused a slowdown in weekly rail traffic of about 10% over the summer of 2020. As you can see in the graph below, even that didn’t derail (couldn’t resist) CNR’s revenue much or for very long.

Line graph showing CNR's revenue growth over 10 years- steady growth except in 2020-2021 due to the pandemic.

When the oil price is low, trucking steers some business away from railroads. CNR is a captive of its best assets since you can’t move railroads!

Get acquainted with other great Canadian stocks, read Canadian Forever Stock Selection.

CNR Dividend Growth Perspective

Canadian National Railway has successfully increased its dividend yearly since 1996. The management team ensures they use a good portion of CNR’s cash flow to maintain and improve railways, while rewarding shareholders with generous dividend payments. CNR exhibits an impressive dividend record with very low payout ratios. To learn more about payout ratios read this article.

Line graph of Canadian National Railway dividend amount for the last 10 years; yearly increases, with a generous increase early 2022 as business normalized after the peak of the pandemic.

While the business faces headwinds periodically, its dividend payment will not be affected. Shareholders can expect more high single-digit dividend increases. The railroad company kicked off 2023 with an impressive dividend increase of 8%. If you can grab CNR with a yield of approximately 2%, you’re making a good deal!

Learn strategies for generating income for life. Download our guide now.

Final Thoughts on Canadian National Railway

Despite CNR’s capital-intensive requirements and reliance on the Canadian resource markets, we believe Canadian National Railway will come sailing through the current economic downturn and maintain its dividend increases.

With CNR’s unmatched-quality railroad assets almost impossible to replicate, and its management taking on the challenges of the current environment, we could see more growth emerging from all this. Also, CNR will benefit from the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline which will drive demand for oil transport via railroads. With a current yield above 2%, CNR is definitely worth a look.

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